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In April of this year, the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii recorded its first-ever carbon dioxide reading
over 410 parts per million (ppm). This is a brand-new state of affairs,
as humans have never existed on Earth with CO2 levels over 300 ppm. If
carbon emissions continue their current trend, our atmosphere could get
to a point it hasn’t been at in 50 million years—when
temperatures were 18°F (10°C) higher and there was almost no ice on the
planet (meaning there was a lot more water and a lot less land).
There’s long been a consensus between multiple countries to try to
limit the temperature change from global warming to two degrees Celsius.
This is critical for many reasons, not least the effect hotter
temperatures will have (and have already had) on food production.
But author and activist Paul Hawken says two degrees isn’t enough—not
nearly enough, in fact. In a moving presentation at Singularity
University’s Global Summit last week in San Francisco, Hawken shared details from his recently-released bookDrawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming.
Paul Hawken at Singularity University’s Global Summit in San Francisco.
The term “drawdown” refers to the point in time when the
concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere begins to decline on
a year-to-year basis. To figure out how to reach that point, Project Drawdown
brought together researchers in various fields from around the world to
identify, measure, and model the 100 most substantive solutions to
global warming. The book describes each solution’s history, its carbon
impact, its relative cost and savings, the path to adoption, and how it
works.
“We found that the mantra for global warming is all about energy,
energy, energy,” Hawken said. “Those are critical solutions, don’t get
me wrong, but somehow we have this idea that if we get energy right then
we get a hall pass to the 22nd century—and nothing could be further
from the truth.”
Below are the top solutions from Drawdown’s model. It’s likely at least one will surprise you.
1. Refrigerant Management
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) largely replaced ozone-damaging chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in refrigeration systems after the 1987 Montreal Protocol.
While HFCs are better for the ozone, though, they’re a lot worse for
the atmosphere, with 1,000 to 9,000 times the capacity to warm the
atmosphere than carbon dioxide.
Countries are now aiming to phase out HFCs, too, starting with
high-income countries in 2019. Natural refrigerant substitutes like
propane and ammonium are already on the market.
Drawdown found that over thirty years, containing 87 percent of
refrigerants likely to be released could avoid emissions equal to 89.7
gigatons of CO2—with a projected net price tag of $903 billion by 2050
2. Onshore Wind Turbines
Wind turbines currently supply around 4 percent of global energy,
and could account for up to 30 percent by 2040. In some areas, wind
energy is already cheaper than energy from coal, and costs will continue
to drop as the technology improves.
Drawdown research found that increasing onshore wind
to 21.6 percent of global energy supply by 2050 could reduce emissions
by 84.6 gigatons of CO2. The estimated cost is a hefty $1.23 trillion,
but it would pay for itself several times over, as wind turbines could
produce net savings of $7.4 trillion over three decades of operation.
Since wind’s not always blowing in most parts of the world, growing
wind infrastructure needs to be accompanied by investment in storage and
transmission infrastructure too.
3. Reduced Food Waste
One third of all the food that’s grown or prepared gets thrown away.
In a world where hunger is still a very real problem for millions of
people, this is nothing short of absurd. And not only does the food
itself get wasted, so do all the components that went into producing it,
like water, energy, and human labor. Food production also generates
greenhouse gases, and organic trash produces methane. Add up all these
components, and food waste accounts for about eight percent of global
emissions.
In poorer countries food waste tends to happen earlier in the supply
chain, as when produce rots on farms or spoils during storage or
distribution. This can be remedied by improving infrastructure for
storage, processing, and transportation.
In wealthier nations, retailers and consumers reject food based on
cosmetic imperfections, or throw it out when its expiration date passes.
National policies against food waste like those enacted in France
last year are needed to encourage change, as is a loosening of cosmetic
standards for produce by both end consumers and retail chains.
After taking into account the adoption of plant-rich diets, Drawdown found that if 50 percent of food waste
is reduced by 2050, avoided emissions could be equal to 26.2 gigatons
of CO2. Reducing waste also avoids the deforestation for additional
farmland, preventing 44.4 gigatons of additional emissions.
4. Eating a Plant-Rich Diet
If cattle were their own nation, they would be the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases. As of 2014, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization found that 14.5 percent of all emissions stemming from human activity come from livestock.
That’s just one good reason to eat more plants. A plant-based diet is
also healthier and in many cases more affordable than meat (especially
if you consider the impact of government subsidies, such as those
benefiting the US livestock industry).
Altering our diet is easier said than done, as people’s food choices
are highly personal as well as cultural—but making plant-based options
widely available and educating populations about plants’ health benefits
are a good starting point.
Drawdown found that if 50 percent of the world’s population restricted their diet to a healthy 2,500 calories per day and reduced meat consumption
overall, at least 26.7 gigatons of emissions could be avoided, plus
another 39.3 gigatons from avoided deforestation from land use change.
5. Saving Tropical Forests
Tropical forests once covered 12 percent of the world’s land, but now
cover just five percent. Much of the clearing has been to make way for
agriculture (either crops or livestock). These forests continue to be
cleared in some parts of the world, but in others, they’re being
restored.
“As a forest ecosystem recovers, trees, soil, leaf litter, and other vegetation absorb and hold carbon,” Drawdown’s tropical forests
page says. As flora and fauna return and interactions between organisms
and species revive, the forest regains its multidimensional roles:
supporting the water cycle, conserving soil, protecting habitat and
pollinators, providing food, medicine, and fiber, and giving people
places to live, adventure, and worship.”
Forests can be restored by releasing land from non-forest use and
letting nature do its thing. People can also cultivate and plant native
seedlings and remove invasive species to accelerate the process. Drawdown’s model
assumes restoration could occur on 435 million acres of degraded
tropical land. Through natural regrowth, committed land could sequester
1.4 tons of CO2 per acre annually, for a total of 61.2 gigatons of
carbon dioxide by 2050.
6. Educating Girls
Women with more education have fewer children, and the children they
do have are healthier. Maternal and infant mortality rates are lower for
educated women. Girls who stay in school longer are less likely to
marry as children or against their will, they have lower rates of
HIV/AIDS and malaria, and their agricultural plots are more productive
and their families better nourished.
Drawdown found that economic, cultural, and safety-related barriers
prevent 62 million girls around the world from realizing their right to
education, and lists these strategies as being key to change:
Make school affordable
Help girls overcome health barriers
Reduce the time and distance to get to school
Make schools more girl-friendly
The UN Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization estimates
universal education in low- and lower-middle-income countries could be
achieved by closing an annual financing gap of $39 billion. This could
result in an emissions reduction of 59.6 gigatons by 2050.
7. Family Planning
Drawdown’s family planning page
states “225 million women in lower-income countries say they want the
ability to choose whether and when to become pregnant but lack the
necessary access to contraception. The need persists in some high-income
countries as well, including the United States, where 45 percent of
pregnancies are unintended.”
The UN’s medium variant global population projection of
9.7 billion people by 2050 assumes a decline in fertility levels in
countries where large families are still common. To achieve this figure
(as opposed to the high variant), improving women’s access to
reproductive health services and family planning is essential, above all
in less-developed countries.
Drawdown modeled the impact of family planning based on the
difference in how much energy, building space, food, waste, and
transportation would be used in a world with little to no investment in
family planning compared to one in which the 9.7 billion projection is
realized. The resulting emissions reductions could be 119.2 gigatons of
CO2. Half this total was allocated to educating girls.
Power to the Girl
Family planning and educating girls are closely linked in that the
former is highly affected by the latter—and they’re both key to managing
global population growth. Drawdown realized the exact dynamic between
these two solutions is impossible to determine, and thus allocated 50
percent of the total potential impact—59.6 gigatons—to each. Their
models assume these impacts result from thirteen years of schooling,
including primary through secondary education. The total atmospheric CO2 reduction of 119.2
gigatons that could result from empowering and educating women and girls
makes this the number one solution to reversing global warming.
“A girl who is allowed to be in school and come to be a woman on her
terms…makes very different reproductive choices,” Hawken said. “And when
we modeled this we modeled family planning clinics everywhere. Not just
in Africa, but in Arkansas. Women everywhere should be supported in
their reproductive health and well-being for their families.”
Hawken concluded his talk with a perspective on climate change I had
never heard before, and most of the audience likely hadn’t either.
“Global warming isn’t happening to us. It’s happening for
us. It’s a gift. Every system without feedback dies. This is feedback.
It’s an offering to re-imagine who we are and what we can create with
our minds, our hearts, and our brilliance.”
His presentation received a standing ovation.
Image Credit: Stock Media provided by nito / Pond5
Vanessa
is associate editor of Singularity Hub. She's interested in renewable
energy, health, the developing world, and countless other topics. When
she's not reading or writing you can usually find her outdoors, in
water, or on a plane.
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