“Anywhere you look, you’re able to find pretty objective measures of bad things happening. It’s clear climate change impacts are arriving faster than anticipated and worse than anticipated.”

Julio Friedmann

Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University

" California, the US state with arguably the country’s most determined climate agenda, battled more than 9,500 wildfires last year, which consumed some
4.2 million acres of forest.  Similarly, 2019 was Australia’s hottest summer on record and resulted in bushfires burning an estimated 32 million acres. Satellite data revealed in September 2020 that the year’s Arctic sea ice cover shrank to the second-lowest level ever recorded, nearly 2.5 million square kilometers less than the average of the last four decades. And data from the Brazilian National Institute of Space Research estimated there was a 9.5% increase in Amazon deforestation in the year up to July 2020 over the previous year. The economic cost of the damage is mounting; the world’s 10 costliest weather disasters of 2020 saw insured damages worth $140 billion in 2020, according to a report by Christian Aid.

“Anywhere you look, you’re able to find pretty objective measures of bad things happening. It’s clear climate change impacts are arriving faster than anticipated and worse than anticipated,” says Julio Friedmann, senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “This means that climate change is not an acute problem like a storm you clean up after,

it’s a chronic problem, like having diabetes and having to manage your health continuously.”

If the planet was managing (badly) with diabetes, it took 2020’s metaphorical heart attack for the world to really grasp the state of its health. This is not to say that prior to covid there was complete inaction. The International Energy Institute estimates that energy-related CO2 emissions in 2019, at roughly 33 gigatons, were the same as 2018, and energy emissions in advanced economies (roughly a third of the world’s total) actually dropped 4% last year.

Prospect of a green recovery

Having wiped an estimated 4.4% off the world’s GDP this year, covid-19 has put humanity’s impact on the environment back in the spotlight. First, it showed how changes in human activity can significantly reduce carbon emissions. Analysis of electricity production, air travel, and other fuel consumption data in the first half of 2020 found that CO2 emissions were 8.8% lower globally than the same period in 2019, a far greater decline than in any previous period of economic contraction.

Second, policymakers realized that the massive stimulus packages ($12.6 trillion globally) earmarked for pandemic recovery could be directed into infrastructure, innovation, and programs that will build economic and environmental resilience for the long term. Germany, the world’s “pandemic green leader,” is spending over a third of recovery stimulus on transportation transition, renewable energy capability building, and other projects that will serve as a cornerstone of the EU’s attempt to make Europe the first carbon-neutral continent. China is using its central planning prowess to develop the world’s largest comprehensive decarbonization plan, even though less than $1.5 billion of its post-covid recovery stimulus spending is specifically targeted at green projects. Even in the US, where the past four years have seen a systematic reversing of emission-capping regulations, $26 billion in stimulus is being aimed at sustainability and emissions reduction programs, providing a platform for President Joe Biden to “build back better” and fulfill his promise to rejoin the Paris Accord.

Yet there is a tension for governments around the world as they allocate the economic “pain relief” in balancing short- and long-term objectives. Many are being criticized for not using the crisis as enough of an opportunity to make hard choices and pivot away from fossil fuel- intensive sectors. Claire Healy, program director for climate diplomacy at climate advocacy group E3G, says that covid provided “a pivotal moment—a window into a decade of decarbonization, where decision-makers in government, in banks, in businesses, have to decide how we build back. It’s about competitiveness in the future; the promise of green jobs and technologies drives further action and ambition.” The Green Future Index benchmarks the progress and commitment that countries are making toward becoming future green leaders. "