Dear Vladimir Putin, are you a stupid human being?

 Attention Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin:

  I understand you are a very lonely and sick human being, but are you a stupid human being? Can you answer these simple questions?

  What will happen after you have completely obliterated every building in the Ukraine? What are your plans for the future? Are you going to rebuild the Ukraine and put Russians in the buildings or are you going to try and destroy and conquer the countries around the Ukraine? It will take billions of Roubles and Euros and many years to completely rebuild the Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia will suffer under international sanctions and you will have zero Roubles to spend.

 International sanctions will eat at the fabric of your social and industrial systems. 

 I postulate that you will have to bring your Tanks home or leave them in place. Your supply lines will be very long and in constant danger. Your country is currently cut-off from the world and nobody wants to deal with Russia. If captured you will be brought to a hospital for the mentally insane and then, if found competent, brought to The Hague where you will face a court of international judges. It will be at that point that your family and all of Russia will understand how you pushed them into a war nobody wanted and how it was you along with your rich friends, your generals and your Tank commanders who acted like Nazis. 

 You may avoid the disgrace if you are murdered by someone within your own ranks. I believe you are a sociopath and not a psychopath which explains why you have taken the trouble to protect yourself with a home guard. Fear is the one emotion you do not allow yourself to have but the truth is you have lived with an underlying fear for decades and you continue to live with fear on a daily basis. That is truly sad!

  I have a solution. Stop the war immediately and then begin negotiations. It may help you survive the future but if you feel that is not possible...I also suggest you stop the war and then change your face and your identity. Don't wait for spring, do it now! That may be the only chance you have to prolong your life and of ever seeing your family again!

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Madman theory

Mr Putin himself tells the story of chasing a rat when he was a boy. When he had driven it into a corner, the rat reacted by attacking him, forcing a young Vladimir to become the one who fled. The question Western policymakers are asking is what if Mr Putin feels cornered now? 

"The question really is whether or not he doubles down with greater brutality and escalates in terms of the weapon systems that he's prepared to use," said one western official. There have been concerns he could use chemical weapons or even a tactical nuclear weapon.

"The worry is that he does something unbelievably rash in a vicious press-the button way," says Adrian Furnham.

Mr Putin himself may play up the sense that he is dangerous or even irrational - this is a well-known tactic (often called the "madman" theory) in which someone with access to nuclear weapons tries to get his adversary to back down by convincing them that he may well be crazy enough to use them despite the potential for everyone to perish. 

For Western spies and policymakers understanding Mr Putin's intentions and mindset today could not be more important. Predicting his response is pivotal in working out how far they can push him without triggering a dangerous reaction.

"Putin's self concept does not allow for failure or weakness. He despises such things" says Ken Dekleva. "A cornered, weakened Putin is a more dangerous Putin. It's sometimes better to let the bear run out of the cage and back to the forest."