Climate Update 2022-2026

WMO update: 50:50 chance of global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5°C threshold in next five years

Tags: 

Climate

9

Published 

9 May 2022

Press Release Number: 

09052022 

Geneva, 9 May 2022 (WMO) - There is a 50:50 chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5 °C      above the pre-industrial level for at least one of the next five years – and the likelihood is increasing with time, according to a new climate update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

There is a 93% likelihood of at least one year between 2022-2026 becoming the warmest on record and dislodging 2016 from the top ranking. The chance of the five-year average for 2022-2026 being higher than the last five years (2017-2021) is also 93%, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, the WMO lead centre for such predictions.

The annual update harnesses the expertise of internationally acclaimed climate scientists and the best prediction systems from leading climate centres around the world to produce actionable information for decision-makers.

The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero.  For the years between 2017 and 2021, there was a 10% chance of exceedance. That probability has increased to nearly 50% for the 2022-2026 period.

“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The 1.5°C figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

“For as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise. And alongside that, our oceans will continue to become warmer and more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea level will continue to rise and our weather will become more extreme. Arctic warming is disproportionately high and what happens in the Arctic affects all of us,” said Prof. Taalas.

The Paris Agreement sets long-term goals to guide all nations to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase even further to 1.5 °C.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that climate-related risks for natural and human systems are higher for global warming of 1.5 °C than at present, but lower than at 2 °C.

Dr Leon Hermanson, of the Met Office led the report. He said: “Our latest climate predictions show that continued global temperature rise will continue, with an even chance that one of the years between 2022 and 2026 will exceed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. A single year of exceedance above 1.5 °C does not mean we have breached the iconic threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does reveal that we are edging ever closer to a situation where 1.5 °C could be exceeded for an extended period.”

In 2021, the global average temperature was 1.1 °C above the pre-industrial baseline, according to the provisional WMO report on the State of the Global Climate. The final State of the Global Climate report for 2021 will be released on 18 May.

Back-to-back La Niña events at the start and end of 2021 had a cooling effect on global temperatures, but this is only temporary and does not reverse the long-term global warming trend. Any development of an El Niño event would immediately fuel temperatures, as it did in 2016, which is until now the warmest year on record.

The findings of the annual update include:

• The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2022 and 2026 is predicted to be between 1.1 °C and 1.7 °C higher than preindustrial levels (the average over the years 1850-1900).
• The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels at least one year between 2022 and 2026 is about as likely as not (48%). There is only a small chance (10%) of the five-year mean exceeding this threshold.
• The chance of at least one year between 2022 and 2026 exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the five-year mean for 2022-2026 being higher than the last five years (2017-2021) is also 93%.
• The Arctic temperature anomaly, compared to the 1991-2020 average, is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.
• There is no signal for the El Niño Southern Oscillation for December-February 2022/23, but the Southern Oscillation index is predicted to be positive in 2022.
• Predicted precipitation patterns for 2022 compared to the 1991-2020 average suggest an increased chance of drier conditions over southwestern Europe and southwestern North America, and wetter conditions in northern Europe, the Sahel, north-east Brazil, and Australia.
• Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September 2022-2026 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest an increased chance of wetter conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier conditions over the Amazon.
• Predicted precipitation patterns for the November to March 2022/23-2026/27 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased precipitation in the tropics and reduced precipitation in the subtropics, consistent with the patterns expected from climate warming.

 

Notes for Editors:

With the UK’s Met Office acting as lead centre, climate prediction groups from Spain, Germany, Canada, China, USA, Japan, Australia, Sweden, Norway and Denmark contributed new predictions this year. Combining forecasts from climate prediction centres worldwide enables a higher quality product than what can be obtained from any single source.

The development of near-term prediction capability was driven by the WMO co-sponsored World Climate Research Programme, which declared one of its overarching Grand Challenges is to support research and development to improve multi-year to decadal climate predictions and their utility to decision makers.

Comprehensive Assessment Reports about the state of scientific, technical and socio-economic knowledge on climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for reducing the rate at which climate change is taking place are the responsibility of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which also issued a Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C.

 

The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System’s authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water

 

For further information contact: Clare Nullis, WMO media officer, cnullis@wmo.int. Tel + 41 79 709 13 97

 

Magnificent Ideas Now In Progress!

GLOBAL WARMING IS HAPPENING NOW AND PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD ARE TAKING ACTION. HERE ARE SOME MAGNIFICENT IDEAS IN FULL PROGRESS.

SOME OLD AND NEW IDEAS INCLUDE:

1. Helping those less privileged. The homeless are being provided with both shelters and social help but more is needed!

2. People around the world today are creating a social middle-of-the-road path in life with a gentle caring philosophy. An old but popular political ideal.

3. Studying the science of Physics and the underlying principles that form our Universe is in full bloom. The Covid 19 Pandemic helped create a faster learning curve.

4. Studying Botany, Biology, and Medicine while completely understanding that our Homo Sapient specie is a territorial carnivore willing to slaughter and eat domesticated species such as Cows, Chickens and Pigs, is moving people toward Vegetarianism, the popular ideal today for maintaining good health. 

5. Studying the territorial imperative in order to understand why many animal species, including human, fight and are willing to kill for territory, is vitally important to avoid future wars!

6. Some excellent ideas include politely asking people who enjoy moving quickly from one territory into another, to stop pumping Carbon Monoxide into the air we all need to breath. Why not drive Electric cars or ride Bicycles or utilize (non-polluting) public transportation?

7. Some wonderful ideas include creating or improving water filtration plants, recycling depots and planting a millionTrees and thousands of vegetable and flower gardens every single year, everywhere, especially in drought and famine susceptible countries!

8. Personally, this author suggests planting grass and trees and flower and vegetable gardens in every school yard in Canada and assigning students to learn about and care for the plants.

9. With portable computers liberating office workers. it is now possible to transform business sky scrapers into partial Hydroponic Green Houses. Company employees can now enjoy spending a few hours a day caring for plants. Old office buildings can also be renovated and transformed into shelters for the homeless. Europe is ahead of North America in this regard.

10. Today, May 31, 2022, the Ukraine is a sad example for the world! We must stop the race for money and power and territory and dangerous sociopaths and psychopaths must be screened and prevented from entering world governments. All potential government leaders must pass a universally accepted United Nations sponsored full psychiatric examination. Failure to pass immediately excludes the candidate from working in government.

11. For long distance travel their now exists Pony Express style Electric Busses that can simply be exchanged every five hundred miles. While one bus is being charged passengers can transfer and continue their journey in another fully charged bus. Small Electric busses are now in operation in cities around the world and of course, the Electric Trains continue to be popular. 

12. Electric trains already exist. The Japanese have fantastic high speed Maglev trains which North Americans should have adopted years ago. Electric cars are now on the market and momentum for these vehicles has picked up speed. We need charging stations on every telephone pole across North America to make sure nobody is forced to sit waiting in a dead-battery car. The poles could also be covered with flexible Solar panels wired to charge a large battery sitting under the pole. A CREDIT CARD CAN BE USED TO ACTIVATE A POLE CHARGING STATION IN THE SAME WAY THEY DO IN PARKING GARAGES.

13.  The same people who service and pump gas into our cars today, can continue to service cars as battery exchange specialists. We need cheaper assembly line Electric vehicles with removable battery packs.  Inexpensive cars that have quick slide-in-and out replaceable battery packs exactly like today's wonderful cordless drills.

14.  With human population density becoming a serious problem and global warming presently creating havoc around the world, the need to reduce our world population growth can be addressed with better sex education in the schools. Botany and Biology is best taught in early childhood along with reading and writing. Later, young adults must be reminded how the need for birth control is important. 

15.  We absolutely have to stop building giant condo developments. Without Green spaces and Parks, Condos-for-profit are quickly becoming overcrowded and dangerous slums. To protect us all from global warming and to help slow global warming, it is possible to create round underground villages with apartments and boutiques and grocery stores all lit by fibre optic cables and warmed by the Earth while above ground only Green Houses and Orchards and gardens and Green parks filled with Trees and flowers will be legally permitted.

15. One final thought! Magnificent ideas are happening today! Help them along! 

P.S. It is highly recommended that before global warming creates a mass extinction, you act on one or more of the above ideas!   

Signed:  Nelson Joseph Raglione   human4us2.blogspot.com

There is too much hate!!

 Gentle People:

  There is too much hate in the world today! Remaining positive or 'even keeled' as old mariners used to say, is difficult. The boat is being swamped by waves of hate and anger and greed and the race for money and power and territory continues to dominate human thinking.

 The Ukraine today is a sad example of a greed motivated terrifying fight for territory. It could escalate into a Third World War if something is not done quickly to stop the carnage. A solution is needed and one old but tried and true idea is to send in United Nations soldiers. A United Nations Peace Force.

 Two or three battalions of soldiers from every country with every soldier wearing the United Nations Blue Helmet. On each helmet will be the brightly coloured U.N. symbol and it will be unmistakable! If you fight the U.N. you fight the whole world and any opposing army soldier will quickly understand who he is fighting against. Hopefully, Putin will get the message.

 It is time to stamp out the fires of greed and hopefully bring back peace to this Earth.

Thanks for reading. 

Nelson Joseph Raglione

human4us2.blogspot.com

human4usbillions@gmail.com

 

ACT NOW: Sound the ALARM For Wet’suwet’en  Inbox Sleydo’ from Gidimt’en Checkpoint <greenpeace.canada@greenpeace.ca> Unsubscribe 5:05 PM (1 hour ago) to me Dear Nelson, we are passing on this important message from our friend Sleydo’, spokesperson of Gidimt’en Checkpoint and Wet’suwet’en land defender (also known as Molly Wickham). Please read, RSVP, and share widely.

Dear friends, allies and comrades,   While we try to live out our daily lives and conduct cultural practices with our elders and children, police barge into our homes without permission — everyday, with at least six officers — intimidating us, surveilling us, illegally arresting, and detaining people on our own lands.    It's a story as old as the colonial violence against Indigenous peoples to steal land, resources, and wealth. The sad truth is, it’s what’s happening right now: They want to intimidate us off our land so Coastal GasLink can start drilling in less than one month under our sacred headwaters, Wedzin Kwa.    In March 2020, thousands of you took to the streets, railways, ports and highways to stand with Wet’suwet’en and demand Coastal GasLink cease construction. We made global headlines — forcing Justin Trudeau and John Horgan to commit to entering into discussions with Wet’suwet’en Hereditary chiefs. [1]   But they haven’t made any progress with us on those title discussions, haven’t stopped construction and haven’t pulled RCMP or CIRG off of our territories. In fact, things have gotten worse. The UN has issued yet another letter to the so-called governments of Canada and BC, calling for an end to police violence and to halt construction. [2]    We need your help to stop the drilling and make them listen, and we want to give you an update with all the information you need to act. Will you join me and Sound the Alarm for Wet’suwet’en on Thursday May 26 at 4 pm on Zoom? In this call, you’ll hear from Chief Woos, Chief Na'Moks, and myself and learn about what you can do to support us in our fight against CGL.

YES!

Can’t make it? Help promote the event!

Here are the details:  What: Sound The Alarm For Wet’suwet’en  When: Thursday May 26, 4 pm PT / 7 pm ET  Where: https://bit.ly/3LnPld7    The Supreme Court of Canada, under the Delgamuukw v. British Columbia legal case, recognized that the Wet’suwet’en people never ceded our title to our land. [3] Yet over and over, both the so-called governments of British Columbia and Canada have paid lip service to reconciliation, claiming they respect Indigenous peoples’ rights.    And now, we face losing our land, our water, our way of life. It’s why I’m reaching out now, because we need to raise the alarm so people everywhere know what is at stake, and rise up in massive opposition to help stop the drilling.    Will you join the call to Sound the Alarm for Wet’suwet’en on Thursday May 26 at 4 pm PT / 7 pm ET to learn how you can help stop the drilling and stand with Wet’suwet’en?

YES!

Can’t make it? Help promote the event!

The amount of pressure and stress I feel everyday knowing that my people and our land are under threat is made worse by the constant police presence — showing up at my house unannounced and questioning us for living our lives. My children are 2, 6 and 11 years old. They shouldn’t have to bear this burden — and they’ve done nothing to deserve this treatment.    At the same time, I feel immense hope. I believe in the thousands of people who have shared their outpouring of love and support for Wet’suwet’en. I’m energized by the beauty I see in the Wedzin Kwa river, everyday, and grateful for how the land provides for me, my family, and my community. Will you stand with me and join the call to Sound the Alarm for Wet’suwet’en on Thursday May 26?

YES!

With gratitude,    Sleydo’  Spokesperson for Gidimt’en Checkpoint, Cas Yikh House, Wet’suwet’en

Notes: [1] Trudeau urges patience as Wet'suwet'en consider proposed land and title deal [2] UN committee issues 3rd rebuke to B.C. and Canada over policing of Indigenous land defenders [3] A Lay Person's Guide to DELGAMUUKW - BC Treaty Commission

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