The oldest boomers are now just 68. But there are 78 million of them, and as they get older, the impact on suburbia will be profound. More and more of municipalities' taxes will be going to support them instead of schools and parks — Why? Because they vote a lot — while property values, and the tax base will decline as whole neighborhoods turn into senior citizens districts, with old Saturns rusting in the driveway like at my mother-in-law’s house. Transit costs will go through the roof as seniors demand services in low-density areas that cannot support it. The fact is, there is a major urban planning disaster staring us all in the face, which is going to seriously hit everyone young and old in about 10 years when the oldest boomers are 78. We have to prepare for it now.
My mother-in-law's house with that rusting Saturn in the driveway. (Photo: Google Maps)
So what has happened since? Not much. Over
at CityLab they revisit the story and find that baby boomers are mostly staying put right now, hoping house prices will continue to rise. Many are still "under water" with houses worth less than their mortgages, or just treading water, where the house won’t sell for enough to retire on. So right now they're thinking about renovating. Arthur C. Nelson, who predicted the Great Senior Sell-off, says it's still coming, but later, in the mid to late 2020s.
“It’s not that Boomers are going to ‘age in place’,” says Nelson. “They’re going to be stuck in place, and they’re going to make the best of it.” Those who can afford it will remodel.
Boomers are renovating more, moving less. (Photo: Joint Center for Housing Studies)
This is more in line with my understanding of the demographic; it will start getting messy when the boomers start hitting their late 70s. At some point, they're not going to have a choice but to sell. That also just might coincide with when the millennials’ kids are getting too big for the apartment and they're ready to move to the suburbs. The timing might just work out and avoid the urban planning disaster I've predicted.
On the other hand, there may well be a mismatch between what the boomers are selling and what millennials are buying. Jennifer Molinsky of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies tells CityLab:
“Millennials are likely to prioritize different features in their homes, such as greener materials or in-law suites,” says Molinsky. And according to the Harvard Joint Center’s projections, nearly 90 percent of those looking for homes in 2035 will be under 35 or 70 and over — and both groups tend to buy less square footage.
Yogi Berra was right when he said "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." But there's one thing we know for certain: There are 78 million baby boomers who are getting old fast, and what they do (and how they vote) pretty much drives every issue from housing to health care . Many are confused about what they want (Read:
Study confirms that boomers are clueless) and are not prepared for what happens when boomers turn into seniors. Sara Joy Proppe
looks at the problem in Strong Towns, after telling a story of giving a lift to a senior:
This story reflects the isolation felt among many of our senior population as they maneuver the built environment. By designing our cities for cars, and consequently neglecting our sidewalks, we have siloed our elders in several ways. Not only does an inability to drive confine many seniors to their homes, but corresponding busy roads and inhumane streetscapes add to the isolating effect by also limiting walkability.
We're sentencing literally tens of millions of people to this fate if we don’t start planning for this now.
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And, once again, I fail to seen the point of all this doom and gloom. I built my 3400 sq. ft retirement home in 2011 with the fact in mind that....not only will I need help one day, but that my aging parents who STILL live in the house that my Grandfather built them in 1965, could well need to move in with me at some point. I am 64, hubby is 74, my parents are in their mid 80's. My new home has an "in-law suite" that is fully handicap friendly. I did have stair lifts installed because my husband has COPD and Congestive Heart Failure. It's no secret that one day I may need a child, or grandchild....or a renting family to move into the upper 2 floors of my house which features 4 bedrooms and 3 baths. I have zero concerns about property values as I certainly have plans to ever sell my house, in fact...I'm putting the house into a trust for my grandchildren's future...not mine. I will retain the right to reside here until my death. There are numerous services available to help out. I have a lawn service to do my mowing...I still do the flowerbeds because I love it. While I'm in a rather rural area with no real bus service, there are vans available through the Area Agency on Aging that will, for a very small fee, take me to the grocery, and to doctor's appointments when necessary. I'm only 1/2 mile from the Marina where I dock my boat so I can either walk that distance or ride my mobility scooter that far.
God Bless those who are willing to VOLUNTEER their services to help seniors do things like cleaning, yard work, bringing in meals, taking us to town for supplies. It's much cheaper for seniors to "age in place" than it is to herd us all off to senior citizens homes" Most of us have tried to plan for many contingencies......I have been rearing 2 grandchildren for the past 10 years, on top of providing assistance to my own parents and caring for a sick husband. We do the best we can with what we have. Personally, when my husband finally passes (and, even though he is ill...and 10 yrs older than me, there's no guarantee that he will die first) I plan to turn my home into "Grandma BooBoo's Home for Wayward Seniors". LOL! Hopefully one of us will be able to drive!
Love your post! You sound like one sharp cookie. if more people took responsibility in planning for their future as you have, we would not be sitting around talking about "what are we going to do about the elderly problem" in this country. Best of luck with the rest of your life--you deserve it!
I'm happy for you. Apparently your planning has been superb and you've been able to maintain a decent lifestyle, as did your parents and grandparents before you. The doom and gloom comes in for people who have not been able to accumulate assets, for a variety of reasons. Broken homes have taken their toll on families. Illness has devastated many. These people are looking into the abyss and not seeing anything to be hopeful about.
Importer, The broken homes issue you mention really hits the nail on the head! Yes, illness, job loss, etc. certainly affect people's finances in a big way sometimes. But the high rate of divorce in this country probably destroys more people financially than any other single factor. Even if it does not leave them completely broke, it certainly impacts their financial well-being in a big way.
A big problem coming up will be the inability for older people to navigate stairs. Unless they are in a ranch style home, those tri-level, split-level, two-three story behemoths that have been built are going to pose serious logistical problems.
I was on foot at one point, it became painfully clear that mass transit was an afterthought. When the bus pulls up at the outside of the shopping mall and you are looking at walking half a mile, just to get to a door, it is daunting. Groceries are a logistical nightmare, unless you call a cab. Even cities that try, have trouble supporting enough bus lines to get people where they need to go within reasonable time frames.
One answer I see would be to turn them into two-family or mother-in-law units. Unless things change for the better, housing is going to continue to be unaffordable. Young people are more inclined to live together, they haven't been able to strike out on their own in their teens or early twenties to support their own apartments and have had to bunk in with others. Traditional marriage is not something many of them aspire to with the 2.1 children and the house in the burbs.
Joining those under 35's WITH the over 70's in a home would solve a lot of the problems. My parents were born at the turn of the 20th century. Everyone lived at home until they married, if times were tough, they moved back in, along with the grandchildren, more hands to help with the work and take care of the kids. We would be going back to what has been the norm for the rest of the world. We are the ones who built a middle class capable of supporting independent living for the generations, that's pretty much done. It has also left us with generations who have not learned to share, to have patience or compassion, it's been all about them. Better make peace with the old folks, you're going to need them and they are going to need you.
2 words..... driverless cars. That will make a huge difference in combatting isolation.
I am 68 years old and had to "retire" early due to disability. During my illness my now ex and deceased husband, spent every penny we had. He had not worked for the six years prior to my illness and was spending money on a new girl friend instead of finding a job to help support us. The divorce came in 2008 and selling the house was extremely difficult but not impossible. After the house sale I was left with unpaid bills that ate up any profits from the house sale. I have had medical bills that are out of this world and am totally reliant on social security and medicare. What are my housing options? Apartments that I can not afford, living with my daughter, or living in a senior housing project where the rents are a little better but utilities are still very high. My health has improved some but I still can't work. Who will hire a 68 year old human resources and risk management executive for any job? I have mobility issues and need single floor living. I don't need large space, just enough to be comfortable. I believe that innovative planning is needed for boomers. I would like to keep my independence as long as I can and live in a safe community with people my general age.
Since the Millennials will still be living at home, no big deal. ;^)
Since the market will likely crash from Trump's coming recession, high interest rates best to sell now if one wants to get out of a home in the next 10 yrs.
I grew up in Florida which I called an elephant graveyard for old people, where they come to die.
And most die of loneliness separated from everything, everyone they knew, grew up with to come down here to sit and rot away.
So growing old where one's family, friends, resources are is a smart thing in most cases.
To lower costs generations will live together, refilling the too big homes.
Others will be divided into apartments, made into businesses, etc.
And many will be like me living in tiny houses that cost little to build, buy and live in.
And here in SE of Tampa, they are building at a rapid pace with 10 new subdivisions within 1 mile of me.
Here in Seattle at least Millennial families with kids do not live in "downtown" market-rate apartments. The only significant cohorts of family apartment dwellers in the city are found in:
- Seattle Housing Authority communities;
- The few non-profit affordable units designed for families; and
- 2+ bedroom market-rate apartments renting for no more than $1,800/month (not pricey in the current market). These units are in the farthest, most suburban corners of Seattle.
Like almost every piece referencing Millennials this one ignores the majority who never moved to the big city and have always been working class or poor.
I grew up in Ballard. My parents built a home in 1941 for $6K - twice the going rate for housing at the time. I just looked it up on Zillow - 2 bdrm 1 & 1/2 baths $750K! Most people will never make enough money to live in that area.
The cost of housing has become a serious problem. The median household income in Seattle is now about $80,000/year, so there are enough families with enough money to bid up your parents' home to $750K. If it were put on the market it would probably sell in a week or less.
At the same time there are still plenty of jobs in the city paying $30-40K/year. Living in the city on that income means a studio apartment or roommates.
I built my TH for less than $1800 of new materials!!
So to afford that they would have to make before taxes $2400/month just to pay the rent!!
And since rent shouldn't be 30% of income, they need to make $6k/month.
Maybe they should live cheaper and work a whole lot less?
We had a house built in 1987. It is about 2200 sf, all on one level. We have since replaced all windows and doors; enlarging all interior doors enlarged to 36" for wheelchair accessibility. We have remodeled both bathrooms, the kitchen, the bedrooms, the airlock entry and exterior walls. I'm a baby boomer, age 69, and I still plan to downsize. My 96+ year old father has been living with us for a year. When he's gone, I plan on selling this house and moving to the city where all of our doctors are located. Visual problems are increasing and we no longer care to drive 40+ miles one way to see the retinologist, glaucoma specialist and ophthalmologists!
Your gloom and doom article is way off. This article might have got some traction if it were written in the mid 50's early 60's. The boomers are not going to allow themselves to be put out to pasture by the younger generations. We are a mobile community with vast amounts of ability and intelligence. I am in my late 60's and I still work in my business and assist my son who is the primary. Technology will be of greater assistance than any young human. Machines that will be able to assist us in any endeavor. The only thing that is on the minds of the younger folks is how high they can get on all the drugs that are flowing into our country due to the negligence of law enforcement and government. If any thing, look for a resurgence of the boomers due to the great melt down in intelligence of the younger folks that were stuck with educational programs that left them as dumb as a box of rocks. Sorry to burst your bubble but I don't look forward for help by anyone but myself.
The oldest boomers are not now just 68. The oldest boomers as of 2017 are or will be turning 71. It doesn't matter if property values decline, the local taxing authorities will simply manipulate the calculations (raise the mils, etc.) to provide the schools with the same amount of money or more. My home in South Carolina dropped in value by about 30% after the crash of 2008. It is still down by about more than 15%, and yet my property taxes today are more than double what they were when my house was at peak value in about 2007.
the "oldest boomers are 68" is in a quote from an earlier story that I wrote two years ago. You are correct about the oldest boomers today. You are also correct about how property taxes work; They still go up even if your property value goes down as the politicians decide how much money they need and divide it up according to value. But you can only squeeze so much blood from a stone.
